Patterns in Pickleball: Your Path to Predictable Wins
Patterns in Pickleball: Predict & Conquer Opponents with Percentage-Based Strategies
This weekend, I attended the PPA event in Texas and watched pro pickleball players Ben Johns and Gabe Tardio join forces. Normally, Ben Johns is best known for his impeccable dink and drop consistency. However, in this partnership, he shifted gears, driving more often and allowing Tardio to shake and bake on the fourth shot. Seeing such a strong player break away from his usual approach inspired me to write this article about patterns in pickleball. These patterns shape our decisions on the court, and sometimes, surprising deviations give us a brand new perspective on how to win.
Pickleball may appear spontaneous, yet many rallies follow recognizable sequences. These repeatable “patterns” form the heart of competitive play and allow you to anticipate what’s coming next. When you can predict your opponent’s moves, you position yourself for higher-percentage shots. Below, we’ll dive into the most common patterns, and share how to maximize your advantage by playing the percentages.
Why Patterns in Pickleball Give You a Winning Edge
Pickleball players often believe rallies are random. Yet time and again, the same shot combinations appear. When one team consistently drives on the third shot, you know to prepare for a fast incoming ball. If they prefer soft drops, you can expect a slower exchange. Recognizing these tendencies feels like reading your opponent’s mind.
Patterns emerge from court geometry, game rules, and human habit. For instance, the Two Bounce Rule naturally funnels the return of serve to certain positions. Meanwhile, your own mental preferences push you to repeat shot choices that once worked. Understanding how likely a certain shot is to appear, perhaps 80% of the time, helps you anticipate and plan your response.
The Power of Playing Percentages
One key reason patterns matter: they let you “play the percentages.” If you know an opponent hits a cross court return 70% of the time, you can position yourself to intercept or counter that shot. While there is still a 30% chance they might change tactics, your preparation covers the most probable outcome. This approach stacks the odds in your favor.
By treating pickleball like a chess match, you begin to see each rally as a series of predictable moves. If your data shows a high likelihood of a certain shot selection, shifting your stance or paddle angle is a smart move. The result? You make fewer errors, place your shots better, and pressure opponents into mistakes.
Common Pickleball Patterns and How to Exploit Them
Patterns in pickleball aren’t random. They emerge because most players stick to familiar habits under pressure. Below are some universal sequences you will see time and time again.
1. The Third-Shot Drop vs. Drive Dilemma
Many doubles players prefer to drop on the third shot to gain control in the Kitchen. Others prefer a powerful drive to force an early error. When you face an opponent who repeats the same third shot 80% of the time:
- If They Love to Drive: Expect the ball to come at you fast. Prepare with a firm volley or a slight block. Position your paddle in front, and be ready to counter quickly. A surprising counter attack can rattle their confidence.
- If They Love to Drop: Anticipate a softer ball landing in the Kitchen area. Move up, watch for a high bouncing drop, and be ready to apply pressure. Put away anything they leave too high.
This pattern repeats because it aligns with each player’s comfort zone. Spot it early, and you’ll have an advantage.
2. The “Cross Court Returns” Habit
At most levels, players return serves cross court around 70–80% of the time. Why? Because returning cross court gives them more real estate to work with, a lower net height, and a simpler angle to keep the ball in play.
You can exploit this pattern by shifting slightly to that side after your serve. Position yourself to volley or drive if they float it. However, do not shift too far or you’ll be vulnerable if they try to surprise you with a down the line return. Balancing coverage with aggression is vital, but cheat just enough to capitalize on the high probability cross court return.
3. The “Scramble Situation” Drive
When an opponent gets pulled wide or is off balance, they often drive the ball out of desperation. This pattern appears in roughly half of scramble scenarios, especially at intermediate levels.
To counter:
- Cover the likely drive path with a solid ready position.
- Expect less spin and more raw pace as they try to catch up.
- Return to the open space they abandoned.
A calm, prepared response exposes their rushed shot.
4. The “Triangle Rule” in Fast Exchanges
In quick fire volleys, the “Triangle Rule” describes how speeding up a ball toward one opponent often triggers a counterattack to your partner. Think of it as a triangle pattern connecting you, your partner, and the opponent in front of you.
To benefit:
- Communicate with your partner before starting a fast exchange.
- If you accelerate the ball, warn your partner they might see the next shot.
- Stay ready to protect the middle if your partner initiates the speedup.
Over time, your team synergy skyrockets because each partner knows where the ball is likely to go next.
Percentage Based Approaches Within These Patterns
High level pickleball players rarely rely on guesswork. They leverage patterns and percentages to create a calculated strategy that amplifies their strengths while minimizing risk. Below, we explore how to bring a numbers driven mindset to your pattern recognition.
Match Your High Percentage Shot with Their Predictable Next Move
Let’s say an opponent sends deep cross court serves 80% of the time. You can plan a high percentage forehand drive into their weaker side. If they keep returning to the same spot, you exploit that pattern with minimal risk. Over time, your consistent, controlled shot puts them on the defensive.
Alternatively, if you notice they always rush the net after a drop, respond with a controlled lob 60% of the time. Keep them guessing with an occasional passing drive. By mixing up a small portion of your responses, you prevent them from reversing your pattern recognition.
Apply the “One More Ball” Mindset When Off Balance
Sometimes, you encounter a shot that pulls you out of position. Instead of trying a miraculous winner, think “one more ball.” In many cases, players attempt risky winners when off balance only to commit an unforced error. The higher percentage play is to reset. Give your opponent a neutral ball, and wait for a better opening.
This approach is especially crucial if your data suggests they convert just 30% of high risk shots. Make them prove they can attack consistently. If you keep returning one more ball, their mistakes start piling up.
Use Safe Targets for Predictable Patterns
An effective way to force predictable responses is to attack an opponent’s weaknesses. Aim most of your drives or drops at the side they struggle with. If 70% of their backhand dinks land short or high, keep peppering that zone. Eventually, they’ll cough up an easy put away.
The same logic applies to net positioning. Some doubles teams never switch or poach aggressively. If you see that pattern, choose to speed up down the line, because you know they likely won’t shift to cover it in time.
Advanced Pattern Play: Orchestrating the Rally
Top pickleball players don’t just anticipate patterns; they set them up. This advanced skill resembles a chess strategy where each move aims to elicit a predictable response. By controlling angles, spins, and pace, you steer opponents into your best shots.
The Cross Court Third Shot + Fifth Shot Poach Combo
One popular pattern at higher levels is:
- Third Shot Cross Court: The server or server’s partner drops or drives cross court to the opponent’s outer third of the court.
- Predicted Return: Because cross court shots are safer and more comfortable, the fourth shot usually comes back cross court.
- Fifth-Shot Poach: Knowing the fourth shot travels cross court again, the partner slides over to volley (poach) and aims for an open space or the middle seam.
This sequence works because you influence your opponent to return cross court, allowing your partner to jump on a predictable trajectory. It’s like planting a suggestion in their mind and profiting from their response.
Layering Spin and Pace to Shape Opponent Choices
Another way to lead opponents into predictable shots is by varying spin and pace. Here’s how:
- Heavy Topspin to a Weaker Backhand: Many players “block” or pop up these shots. Their return often becomes a juicy high ball you can crush.
- Off Speed Shots at the Feet: Opponents frequently respond with a lift or short dink. Prepare to pounce on the next ball.
By combining these variations, you steer rallies into a pattern you’ve already prepared for.
Real World Examples of Playing the Percentages
To illustrate how patterns connect with percentage based thinking, consider these scenarios:
Scenario 1: Doubles Team That Always Drives on the Third Shot
Let’s assume they drive 90% of the time. In that situation, you and your partner:
- Stay slightly back, ready for a hard hit.
- Block or volley the drive back into a safe zone (like the middle of the court) 70% of the time.
- Counter drive 30% of the time if the drive sits up higher than the net.
By playing these percentages, you reduce errors and exploit the predictability of their third shot drive.
Scenario 2: Singles Player Favoring Cross Court Returns
An opponent returning serves cross court 80% of the time gives you a data point. Position yourself slightly to the diagonal side and prepare:
- Hit a forehand drive to their weaker side if they float the return.
- If the return is deeper, keep the rally in the safe zone until they miss or you spot an opening down the line.
This positioning takes away their favored angle while exposing them if they try a lower percentage down the line return.
Scenario 3: Poaching to Exploit Expected 4th shot
Shake and Bake: Your partner drive the third shot cross court, and stays back. The returner likely continues cross court. You identify that shot with near 75% certainty. As the net player, you cheat slightly toward the middle, ready to intercept. If you see the ball heading cross court, you pounce with a poach volley aimed at the open space.
Even if you only convert half of these poaches, you create pressure and unpredictability that might drop the opponent’s confidence further.
How to Practice Recognizing and Creating Patterns
Off court strategy sessions or short video reviews can reveal tendencies in your game and those of your opponents. The next step is turning that knowledge into muscle memory.
Recommended Drills and Exercises
| Drill Name | Objective | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Cross Court Return Target | Anticipate returns and master positioning | Have a partner serve to you repeatedly. Return cross court 80% of the time, then switch to down the line returns for the rest. The server tries to predict which return is coming, reinforcing pattern recognition and coverage. |
| Third Shot Mix Up | Vary drop vs. drive and observe opponent responses | Alternate between driving and dropping the third shot. Track how your opponent reacts. Note how often they pop the ball up when faced with your drive or move in too early on your drop. |
| Triangle Volley Simulation | Improve communication and reflexes | Stand in a triangle formation (two players on one side, one on the other). The single player initiates a speed up. Track how the double team defends and rotates to cover the next shot. |
| Off Speed Attack Reps | Force predictable high returns | Feed balls at medium pace to each other’s feet. Watch how often a popped up return follows. Move in to finish the next ball, creating an “attack pattern.” |
Step by Step: How to Identify Opponent Patterns
How to Identify Opponent Patterns in 5 Steps
- Observe Initial Shots
In the first few rallies, focus on where the serve, return, and third shot go. Are they driving or dropping? Attacking cross court or down the line?
- Note Their Preferences
Look for repeated choices: cross court returns, drop vs. drive, or frequent lobs. Does your opponent lean on dinks or attempt a lob whenever under pressure? Recognize patterns quickly by isolating one shot type at a time.
- Assign Percentages
Estimate how often they choose a particular shot. Write it down mentally if needed. If you see them drive 8 out of 10 times, that’s 80%.
- Adjust Your Position
Shift slightly to cover their most common shot, but avoid exposing easy winners. Subtle shifts can help you cut off angles or set up an attack.
- Vary Your Response
Occasionally mix up your own shot to keep them uncertain and maintain the element of surprise. Keep your own patterns unpredictable. Mixing up your tactics 20–30% of the time makes it hard for them to read you, even as you exploit their tendencies.
FAQ: Patterns in Pickleball
Patterns in pickleball are recurring shot sequences that players rely on. Recognizing them lets you predict your opponent’s next move and exploit high percentage plays.
They reduce guesswork. If you know your opponent drives the third shot most of the time, you can prepare for a fast ball and position effectively, improving your odds of a successful return.
Yes. Beginners often repeat simple habits, like always dinking cross court. Advanced players engineer patterns to manipulate opponents. Regardless of level, identifying trends helps you strategize.
Assign a rough percentage to each shot you see. If an opponent attempts a cross court return 80% of the time, shift slightly to anticipate it. This approach focuses your attention on the most likely outcome.
Absolutely. If your opponent starts reading your go to moves, introduce variety. Blend in different spins, speeds, and shot placements. Keep them guessing instead of letting them predict you.
Key Insights on Patterns in Pickleball
- Patterns Are Predictable: Common scenarios repeat, such as cross court returns or third-shot drives.
- Percentages Create Clarity: Identify how often a tactic appears. Use the data to anticipate shots.
- Control vs. React: Direct rallies toward your strengths. Force opponents into shots you excel at defending or attacking.
- Mix in Surprises: Even a 20% change up keeps the opposition off balance.
- Practice with Purpose: Drills that target these specific sequences help you recognize them faster in live play.
For additional insights into playing percentage based pickleball, check out our in depth guide on Percentages in Pickleball. You can also browse our Paddle Reviews section for insights on pickleball paddles.
If you’re interested in official rules and resources to refine your strategy even further, visit USA Pickleball’s official site for up to date information on the sport’s guidelines.
Patterns in Pickleball
Reflecting on Ben Johns’ recent partnership with Gabe Tardio reminded me how even the greatest players can reinvent their patterns. By combining strategic drives with timely poaches, they demonstrated that “predictability” is only one side of the coin. For the rest of us, recognizing common patterns in pickleball remains a critical skill. When you apply the right data, like an 80% chance of a cross court return, and back it with high percentage shots, you’ll dominate more rallies than ever.
Ready to take that next step? Check out more articles on PickleTip.com or share this one with friends. The more you understand the hidden structures of pickleball, the closer you get to dictating the flow of every game.
